到2040年,哪些国家会是全球最强五大国
到2040，哪些国家会是全球最强5国？
以下是Quora读者的评论：
Sanjay Suda
2040 is a long way away and it is difficult to accurately foresee how the world will evolve; however my take is as follows:
Definitely China, India and Indonesia will be formidable economies by 2040. India and China will both become world powers militarily and be able to project this power internationally.
Possibly include Brazil, if it can keep right wing fanatics from destroying the Amazon forests.
UK will be a much reduced power after its ill advised break from the EU - maybe it will re-apply for entry to the EU by 2040.
The Trump legacy will lead to USA becoming more isolated internationally and its huge debt burden will likely lead to reduced military expenditures; however, it will still remain the pre-eminent military power though weakened substantially economically and with fewer allies and international support.
2040年还很遥远，很难准确预测世界格局将如何演变；但我的看法如下：
毋庸置疑，2040年中国、印度和印度尼西亚将成为实力强大的经济体。印度和中国都将成为军事强国，并且有能力在国际舞台上彰显实力。
如果巴西能阻止右翼狂热分子破坏亚马逊雨林的话，巴西也能占有一席之地。
在任性脱离欧盟后，英国的实力将被大大削弱——或许它会在2040年前再次申请加入欧盟。
特朗普的遗留问题将导致美国在国际上变得更加孤立，其巨大的债务负担可能会导致军费开支的减少；尽管经济方面的实力大幅削弱，盟友和国际支持减少，但其仍将保持强悍的军事力量。
India and China will emerge as leaders in technology powered by their huge STEM graduates and workforce and will displace USA in this.
The international alliances and relationships that were so carefully built up over decades since WWII will see a seismic shift in influence from the Western nations to the Eastern nations such as India, China and Indonesia.
The EU will become more closely bound together economically and militarily and NATO’s role may be redefined.
So ultimately the 5 major powers in 2040 are most likely to be:
1 USA
2 China
3 Russia
4 India
5 A more united Europe led by Germany and France
印度和中国将会成为科技领域的领导者，他们拥有大量的STEM毕业生和劳动力，将在这方面取代美国。
二战后几十年来打造的国际联盟和外交关系将见证其影响力从西方国家向印度、中国和印度尼西亚等东方国家转移的巨大转变。
在经济和军事领域，欧盟将更加紧密地联系在一起，北约的角色可能会被重新定义。
最终，到2040年，五大强国很可能会是：
1美国
2中国
3俄罗斯
4印度
5德国和法国领导的更为团结的欧洲
I believe that the militaries of USA, Russia, China and India will become more similar in their respective capabilities with all four nations having the capability of projecting their military power internationally (beyond their immediate regions which India and China dominate right now)
NATO will become a more European centred rather than being USA centred.
The word will be more balanced militarily with multiple powers and this would lead to lesser international interference by any single power
我相信，美国、俄罗斯、中国和印度的军队将趋于接近，因为这四个国家都有能力在国际社会彰显自己的军事力量(在印度和中国目前主导的邻近地区之外)。
北约的重心将更多地放在欧洲，不再以美国为中心。
在多个大国的参与下，在军事上世界各国将更加平衡，这会减少单个国家对国际事务的干涉。
Other major powers will be:
1 UK
2 Japan - a more militarily self sufficient Japan
3 Indonesia
4 Turkey, depends upon how its relationship with Europe develops and how well is it able to retain its secular principles
5 Brazil, it could still go the way of Argentina at the start of the 20th century, but it could also get its act together
6 Possibly a resurgent South Africa or even Nigeria, though the latter is a long shot as yet
This is my humble opinion, not an expert in any way, and I am sure there will be other countering views, equally worth consideration and discussion
其他强国家有：
1、英国
2、日本—在军事上更加独立
3、印尼
4、土耳其，取决于它与欧洲的关系如何发展，以及能否很好地保持其世俗原则
5、巴西仍有可能重蹈20世纪初阿根廷的覆辙，但它也可以采取一致行动
6、有复苏潜力的南非，甚至是尼日利亚，尽管后者的可能性还很小
以上是鄙人的拙见，我并非专家，肯定会有其他人提出反对意见，都是值得考虑和讨论的。
Milos Milic, Military enthusiast and lover
It would probably be these 5 countries:
*Not in order*
可能是这5个国家:
*排名不分先后*
Russia:
Russia has a huge potential to become world leading military superpower and maybe economic powerhouse (Because of wast resources it owns).
By 2040 Russia has a chance to become worlds most powerful military, and if they continue like this, making weapons paralleled to US weapons it could change from being a Defensive superpower in to a Offensive superpower.
Just in last couple of years Russian military achieved massive success, capturing Crimea without a single shot fired, helping Syria free 80% of its country from ISIS.
By 2040 Russia can and probably will have a Blue water navy.
If Russia uses its full potential it could easily become an economic powerhouse, it has unparalleled amounts of resources ranging from oil to uranium and titanium.
Only thing that is keeping Russia down is co ption and sanctions imposed by the West in 2014 after annexation of Crimea.
All in all big potential, just needs more time.
俄罗斯:
俄罗斯拥有巨大的潜力，成为世界领先的军事超级大国，或许也能成为经济强国(因为它拥有大量资源)。
到2040年，俄罗斯有机会成为世界上最强大的军事力量，如果他们继续保持，制造与美国抗衡的武器，它可能从一个防御性的超级大国变成一个进攻性的超级大国。
就在过去的几年里，俄罗斯军队取得了巨大的成功，不废一枪一弹就占领了克里米亚，帮助叙利亚从ISIS手中解放了80%的领土。
到2040年，俄罗斯可能打造出一支深海海军。
如果俄罗斯充分利用其潜力，会很容易成为一个经济强国，它拥有无与伦比的资源规模，从石油到铀和钛，储量都很丰富。
唯一制约俄罗斯的是附败、以及2014年吞并克里米亚后西方对其实施的制裁。
总之俄罗斯潜力巨大，只是需要更多的时间。
China:
China is already a massive economic superpower 13.61 trillion USD (2018), only behind US. It will most likely take Russian place as 2nd most powerful military in the world by 2030 but it wouldnt hold it for long because of all the copies created by Chinese military, it can hold that spot for 3 to 4 years than it would probably fall back down to 3rd position.
China is a country with 1.4 billion people and its no wonder that they have such a big economy.
China also has vast unused resources but not as much as Russia does.
One thing that is holding China back is also its main advantage, its population. China does have 1.4 billion people but that means massive impact for environment with pollution.
All in all its not if China will become a superpower but when will china become a superpower.
中国:
中国已经是一个庞大的经济超级大国，2018年的GDP达到13.61万亿美元，仅次于美国。在2030年，中国将最有可能取代俄罗斯全球第2强军事大国的位置，但中国在这个位置坐不久，因为中国军方的山寨品只能用上3到4年，然后可能就会回落到第三的位置。
中国是一个14亿人口的国家，所以无怪乎他们有这么大的经济体量。
中国也有大量未开采的资源，但不及俄罗斯。
阻碍中国发展的一个因素也是它的主要优势——人口。中国有14亿人口，这意味着会对环境造成巨大影响。
总而言之，对中国而言，问题不在于其能否成为超级大国，而在于何时能成为超级大国。
US:
US will remain a superpower for at least couple of decades.
Massive economy 20.5 trillion USD, massive and most advanced military in the world.
Largest Navy in the world with 11 supercarriers and 20 carriers in total.
One thing US lacks are good politicians, After Barack Obama US is being on a steady decline because of people like Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton.
All in all it will remain a dominant power in the world for a long time.
美国：
至少在未来几十年内，美国仍将是一个超级大国。
经济总量高达20.5万亿美元，拥有世界上最大规模和最先进的军事实力。
美国海军是世界上最大的海军，共有11艘超级航母和20艘航母。
美国所缺少的是优秀的政治家，在奥巴马之后，美国因为唐纳德·特朗普和希拉里·克林顿这样的人，正在一步步走向衰落。
总之，在很未来长一段时间内，美国仍将是世界霸权。
India:
India is still a developing country that will need a lot of time to become a superpower, but by 2040 it will become one.
Indian economy is thriving, driven by 1.3 billion people, by 2040 we can expect India to become 3rd biggest economy in the world only behind China and EU.
Indian military need a lot of modernization, they’ve taken some steps in modernizing it by cooperating with Russia, buying T-90M MBT, joint development of Su-57 (India hasnt yet pulled out but its not helping either in developing it), new and modernized Navy. India is investing heavily in to modernizing its Military.
Only problem is that Indian people are poor (GDP per capita in India is around 2000 USD), and they will be for a long time.
All in all India is on its path to becoming a superpower but its same as Russia, need more time.
and last but not least…
印度:
印度目前还是一个发展中国家，需要很长时间才能成为超级大国，但到2040年它就会成为超级大国。
印度经济在13亿人口的推动下蓬勃发展，到2040年，我们可以预计印度将成为仅次于中国和欧盟的世界第三大经济体。
印度军队需要进行大规模现代化，他们已经采取了一些措施，与俄罗斯合作，购买T - 9000万MBT，联合开发苏-57(印度还未退出，但对研发也没有帮助)，打造新的现代化海军。印度正在大力投资军事现代化。
唯一的问题是印度人很穷(印度人均GDP只有2000美元左右)，而且这种状况将持续很长一段时间。
总而言之，印度正在成为超级大国，但它和俄罗斯一样，需要更多的时间。
最后但一样重要的是……
EU:
Altho not a country, EU is working like a single country, one single market, one currency (except some countries that kept their currency so their Economy wouldnt collapse) one go nment, they are even planning on having a single military.
Massive economy of 17 trillion USD, quite big military that is quite advanced.
EU is currently most advanced and most developed country in the world, and it will remain that way for a long time. New countries joining EU are just gonna boost EUs military and economic capacity.
EU is set to become a single country and probably 2nd biggest economy in the world with 3rd or 4th most powerful military in the world.
All in all EU is set on becoming a superpower and like China its a matter of time.
That was my take on Which countries will be the top 5 world superpowers in 2040?
欧盟:
尽管欧盟不是一个国家，但它像一个统一的国家、统一的市场、统一的货币一样运作(除了有些国家为了避免经济崩溃保留了自己的货币)，统一的政府，他们甚至计划打造一支统一的军队。
17万亿美元的庞大经济，相当庞大和先进的军事力量。
欧盟是目前世界上最发达、最发达的国家，并将长期保持这种状态。新加入欧盟的国家将会提高欧盟的军事和经济能力。
欧盟将成为一个统一的国家，可能成为世界第二大经济体，拥有世界第三或第四强的军事力量。
总而言之，欧盟正在成为一个超级大国，就像中国一样，只是时间问题。
这就是我对2040年哪些国家将成为世界前5大超级大国的看法？
David Atwell
It will be hard enough to predict what the next two years will be like, thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, let alone what will happen 20 years from now.
But, before I channel Nostradamus, first we should define what a Superpower is. So I’ll use this one from Wiki as it seems to sum it up well whilst leaving a bit of flexibility in our analysis:
A superpower is a state with a dominant position characterized by its extensive ability to exert influence or project power on a global scale. This is done through the combined means of economic, military, technological and cultural strength as well as diplomatic and soft power influence.
由于冠状病毒大流行，未来两年的情况我们都很难预测，更不用说20年后了。
但是，首先我们应该定义什么是超级大国。所以我引用Wiki百科的这个说法，因为看着总结得不错，而且还能给我们保留一点讨论的空间：
超级大国是指在全球范围内具有广泛影响力或展示力量的主导国家。这是通过经济、军事、技术和文化实力以及外交和软实力的综合手段来实现的。
5) Brazil
I will admit this one is controversial and their current handling of the coronovirus is making Trump appear wise and knowledgeable. So negative points there.
Nonetheless Brazil has been making great strives in increasing its position on the global stage. It’s industrial base has been increasing, its financial position has been improving, plus being the most powerful of the South American countries helps here as well.
Plus its not shy in cooperating with China and others in order to move forward in numerous ventures especially in diplomatic matters. And whilst I’m sure China is doing this for Chinese interests first, Brazil can benefit at the same time thus also gain as a result.
5) 巴西
我承认这个国家有争议，他们目前对冠状病毒的处理水平让特朗普看起来都显得明智博学了。这是失分点。
尽管如此，巴西一直在努力提高其在全球舞台上的地位。巴西的工业基础一直在增长，它的财政状况一直在改善，另外作为南美最强大的国家，也有所帮助。
此外，它不羞于与中国和其他国家合作，希望在许多领域，特别是在外交事务上取得进步。我相信中国这样做首先是为了自己的利益，而巴西也可以从中受益，因此也会从中受益。
4) The United States of America
I put the USA fourth due to the current trends taking place. Leaving aside any further acceleration in the current trends, due to the coronavirus, President Trump seems determined to ensure that his America first policies are both isolationist and alienating to both friends and foes alike. This alone does the USA no favours in trying to keep the number one place on the list. It certainly rules out the diplomatic and soft power categories, in our definition.
Furthermore, the financial and industrial decline in the USA has been ongoing for some time. And being in record debt doesn’t help either. Similarly we’ve seen a continuous reduction in military power which the never ending wars have contributed towards.
All is not lost, for the USA, but in 2040 all the above and more will take its toll.
4)美利坚合众国
我把美国排在第四位，是因为目前的趋势使然。暂且不考虑冠状病毒导致的当前颓势进一步加剧，特朗普总统似乎决心要确保他的“美国优先”政策，既孤立、疏远朋友和敌人。对美国想要保持世界头号地位而言，这一点没有任何好处。在我们的定义中，并没有考虑外交和软实力。
此外，美国的金融和工业衰退已经持续了一段时间。负债创记录也无济于事。同样，我们看到了军事力量的持续减少，这是不断结束的战争造成的。
美国并没有失去一切，但在2040年，以上及其他因素都将付出代价。
3) India
There’s no secret that India has already made a massive cultural global impact for decades if not centuries. Anyone in Britain or the Commonwealth readily knows this as do many Americans I’d imagine.
Meanwhile, in the last decade, their financial power has been gaining great momentum, due to a lot of reasons, but technology and the computer industry are chief among them. It also helps that a significant number of the population, now over 1 billion which is significant in of itself, can speak English.
Combine that with a large military, which has nukes, means to say they’re already a significant regional power and a nation which cannot be ignored on the global stage. Give it a further 20 years and India will be even stronger.
3)印度
印度对全球文化的巨大影响已经持续了几十年，这已经不是什么秘密了。英国或英联邦的人都知道这一点，我想许多美国人也知道。
与此同时，在过去的十年中，由于很多原因，他们的金融实力已经获得了巨大的提升，但技术和计算机行业首当其冲。另外，相当一部分的人口(现在已经超过10亿，这本身就很重要)会说英语，这一点也很有帮助。
再加上拥有核武器的庞大军队，意味着印度已经是一个重要的地区大国了，是一个在全球舞台上都不可小觑的国家。再等20年，印度会更强大。
2) EU
I will put the EU second on the list here but with a major proviso: that being further efforts at building a federation of European states takes place where the current nation-state members essentially become states instead akin to the USA and Australia. And I will admit this is far from certain.
Nonetheless such an EU will be extremely powerful in its economy, its industries, not to mention its cultural impact upon the world. Similarly it will be a major player in all things diplomatic, as is the case now, as well as in soft power.
On the military front, there’s no denying that a combined EU armed forces would be among the strongest in the world. And given France would still have nukes, like India, it will be nuclear armed with more advanced nuclear systems than India and likely better than China.
2)欧盟
我将把欧盟列在列表的第二位，但有一个主要的附带条件：为了进一步努力建立一个欧洲国家联盟，应该让目前的国家成员成为州，而不是类似于美国和澳大利亚的国家。我承认这还远远不能确定。
但这样的欧盟将在其经济、工业方面极其强大，更不用说它对世界的文化影响力了。同样，它将在所有外交事务中都扮演十分重要的角色，就像现在这样，在软实力方面也是如此。
在军事方面，不可否认的是，联合起来的欧盟军队将是世界上最强大的军队之一。考虑到法国仍拥有核武器，法国拥有比印度更先进的核武器，可能会比中国更好。
译文来源：三泰虎
1) China
Speaking of China, yes China will be the number one superpower in 2040. It’s trajectory has been heading in this direction for well over a decade as China seems to have no limit to its monetary reserves, its willingness to advance its industries, or for that matter its global investments.
Its global reach is everywhere whether it be in smartphones, computers, through to diplomatic moves or investment ones. Africa and Asia has seen a lot of these latter moves, more so than any other regions, but Central/South America and Europe has also gained from China. Even the USA enjoys China’s strength by the fact that China holds some $2 trillion worth of American debt.
Furthermore, as America retreats into isolation, thanks to Trump’s policies, China is rapidly taking advantage and filling the vacuum left behind from America’s withdrawal with their own presence.
Naturally China also has a very powerful military, which has seen a massive modernization program come about, that includes everything from aircraft carriers to stealth fighter jets and hundreds of nuclear weapons, which only strengthens China’s goal of becoming the number one superpower in 2040
1)中国
说到中国，是的，中国将在2040年成为头号超级大国。十多年来，中国的发展一直朝着这个方向前进，中国似乎没有限制其货币储备，没有限制其工业发展的意愿，也没有限制其全球投资的规模。
无论是在智能手机、电脑领域，还是在外交或投资领域，华为的全球影响力无处不在。非洲和亚洲见证了这种巨变，中南美洲和欧洲也从中国那里获益颇多。甚至美国也因为中国持有价值2万亿美元的美国国债而获益匪浅。
此外，由于特朗普的政策，随着美国一步步走向孤立，中国正迅速加以利用，并用自己的存在来填补美国撤退后留下的真空。
当然，中国也有非常强大的军事力量，已经实现了大规模现代化的计划，包括从航空母舰到隐形战斗机和数百件核武器，这将更加助力中国实现2040年成为世界头号超级大国的目标。
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